Aaron RodgersorJalen Hurts?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts outscores Aaron Rodgers in 56% of simulations.
Aaron Rodgers still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jalen Hurts is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jalen Hurts projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs); Jalen Hurts faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (7% fewer than average to QBs). Jalen Hurts still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.0
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.0
- Ceiling
- 26.0
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB12 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 16.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 18.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 3 |