Jalen HurtsorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Jalen Hurts in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jalen Hurts comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Trevor Lawrence, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Trevor Lawrence faces the Philadelphia Eagles (5% fewer than average to QBs), Jalen Hurts faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.0
- Ceiling
- 26.0
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.9 | 17.5 |
| PPR projection | 16.9 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.9 | 17.5 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB10 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.8 | 16.3 |
| Last season per game | 18.8 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 3 | 7 |