Bo NixorJoe Burrow?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Bo Nix
Bo Nix outscores Joe Burrow in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Joe Burrow comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Bo Nix, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bo Nix projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bo Nix has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 25.0
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 16.2 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.5 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |