Jayden DanielsorJoe Burrow?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels outscores Joe Burrow in 56% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jayden Daniels is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jayden Daniels projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jayden Daniels has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.5
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 25.9
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 24.9
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Jayden DanielsQB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.2 | 16.1 |
| PPR projection | 17.2 | 16.1 |
| Standard projection | 17.2 | 16.1 |
| Rank this week | QB16 | QB20 |
| Matchup | vs IND | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.2 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.3 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 55% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |