Joe BurroworJosh Allen?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Joe Burrow in 64% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Joe Burrow has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (9% more than average to QBs); Josh Allen faces the Los Angeles Rams (7% fewer than average to QBs). Josh Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
- Floor
- 11.6
- Median
- 21.7
- Ceiling
- 36.6
- Big game (25+):
- 37%
- Dud (under 12):
- 11%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.1 | 23.4 |
| PPR projection | 19.1 | 23.4 |
| Standard projection | 19.1 | 23.3 |
| Rank this week | QB5 | QB1 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.2 | 28.0 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 22.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 8 | 55 |