C.J. StroudorJoe Burrow?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores C.J. Stroud in 74% of simulations.
C.J. Stroud still comes out ahead in the other 26%, so Joe Burrow is the better bet, not a sure thing. These are their next games: C.J. Stroud in Week 9, Joe Burrow in Week 10. Joe Burrow projects 6.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Joe Burrow has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% fewer than average to QBs); C.J. Stroud faces the Los Angeles Chargers (21% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.6
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 22.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 11.3
- Median
- 20.7
- Ceiling
- 33.4
- Big game (25+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.1 | 22.0 |
| PPR projection | 15.1 | 22.0 |
| Standard projection | 15.1 | 22.0 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | Not ranked |
| Matchup | at LAC | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.4 | 24.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 38 |