Baker MayfieldorJoe Burrow?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Baker Mayfield in 61% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Joe Burrow is the better bet, not a sure thing. Joe Burrow projects 2.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs), Baker Mayfield faces the Green Bay Packers (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 25.0
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 16.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB16 |
| Matchup | vs GB | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |