Baker MayfieldorDaniel Jones?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones outscores Baker Mayfield in 61% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Daniel Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Daniel Jones projects 2.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Daniel Jones has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (31% more than average to QBs); Baker Mayfield faces the Green Bay Packers (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
- Floor
- 8.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Daniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 17.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |