Baker MayfieldorGeno Smith?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Baker Mayfield in 57% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Geno Smith is the better bet, not a sure thing. Geno Smith projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (12% more than average to QBs); Baker Mayfield faces the Green Bay Packers (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.4
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB18 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 17.0 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |