Fernando MendozaorGeno Smith?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Fernando Mendoza in 99% of simulations.
Fernando Mendoza comes out ahead in the other 1%. Geno Smith projects 10.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs); Fernando Mendoza faces the Seattle Seahawks (26% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 1.8
- Ceiling
- 3.0
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Fernando MendozaQB, LV, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.9 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 1.9 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 1.9 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs SEA | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.2 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | — | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 17% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |