Drake MayeorJoe Burrow?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Joe Burrow in 56% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Drake Maye has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (23% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 13.2
- Median
- 23.0
- Ceiling
- 37.3
- Big game (25+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 12):
- 7%
- Floor
- 11.9
- Median
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (25+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 12):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 24.2 | 22.5 |
| PPR projection | 24.2 | 22.5 |
| Standard projection | 24.2 | 22.5 |
| Rank this week | QB1 | QB3 |
| Matchup | at DET | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.9 | 24.9 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | 34 | 55 |