Drake MayeorMatthew Stafford?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford outscores Drake Maye in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Drake Maye comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Matthew Stafford, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Matthew Stafford projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Matthew Stafford faces the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to QBs), Drake Maye faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.9
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 16.9
- Ceiling
- 27.1
- Big game (25+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 12):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.0 | 17.9 |
| PPR projection | 17.1 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 17.0 | 17.9 |
| Rank this week | QB11 | QB7 |
| Matchup | vs LV | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 15.4 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 9 |