Joe BurroworMatthew Stafford?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Matthew Stafford in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Matthew Stafford comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Joe Burrow, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. These are their next games: Joe Burrow in Week 10, Matthew Stafford in Week 9. Joe Burrow projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Matthew Stafford has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (21% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% fewer than average to QBs). Joe Burrow still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.3
- Median
- 20.7
- Ceiling
- 33.4
- Big game (25+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Big game (25+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 22.0 | 20.0 |
| PPR projection | 22.0 | 20.0 |
| Standard projection | 22.0 | 20.0 |
| Rank this week | Not ranked | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.2 | 16.5 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 38 | 3 |