Jared GofforMatthew Stafford?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford outscores Jared Goff in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jared Goff comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Matthew Stafford, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Matthew Stafford projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Matthew Stafford faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to QBs), Jared Goff faces the Carolina Panthers (8% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Jared Goff
Floor
9.7
Median
17.5
Ceiling
28.4
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
20%
Matthew Stafford
Floor
10.2
Median
17.7
Ceiling
28.2
Big game (25+):
18%
Dud (under 12):
17%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ETMatthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.618.7
PPR projection18.618.7
Standard projection18.618.7
Rank this weekQB8QB6
Matchupat CARat PHI
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game21.917.3
Last season per game17.520.6
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value1413