Bryce YoungorTrevor Lawrence?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Bryce Young

Bryce Young outscores Trevor Lawrence in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Bryce Young, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bryce Young projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bryce Young has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bryce Young
Floor
8.9
Median
18.5
Ceiling
33.7
Big game (25+):
26%
Dud (under 12):
22%
Trevor Lawrence
Floor
9.4
Median
18.2
Ceiling
30.8
Big game (25+):
23%
Dud (under 12):
20%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ETTrevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection20.219.6
PPR projection20.219.6
Standard projection20.219.6
Rank this weekQB4QB5
Matchupvs DETat CIN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game23.017.4
Last season per game13.619.9
Snap share, last game100%95%
Trade value—7