Bryce YoungorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Bryce Young
Bryce Young outscores Trevor Lawrence in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Bryce Young, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bryce Young projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bryce Young has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 30.8
- Big game (25+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 19.6 |
| PPR projection | 20.2 | 19.6 |
| Standard projection | 20.2 | 19.6 |
| Rank this week | QB4 | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs DET | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.0 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | — | 7 |