Jordan LoveorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jordan Love
Jordan Love outscores Patrick Mahomes in 56% of simulations.
Patrick Mahomes still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jordan Love is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jordan Love projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Jordan Love has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (37% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Los Angeles Chargers (18% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 31.2
- Big game (25+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jordan LoveQB, GB, Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.7 | 18.1 |
| PPR projection | 19.7 | 18.1 |
| Standard projection | 19.7 | 18.1 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.0 | 20.9 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 100% |
| Trade value | 1 | 24 |