Trevor LawrenceorTyler Shough?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Tyler Shough in 73% of simulations.
Tyler Shough still comes out ahead in the other 27%, so Trevor Lawrence is the better bet, not a sure thing. These are their next games: Trevor Lawrence in Week 10, Tyler Shough in Week 9. Trevor Lawrence projects 6.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs); Tyler Shough faces the Cleveland Browns (18% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 31.8
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 13.1
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.6 | 14.2 |
| PPR projection | 20.6 | 14.2 |
| Standard projection | 20.6 | 14.2 |
| Rank this week | Not ranked | QB16 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.4 | 18.0 |
| Last season per game | 19.9 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 12 | — |