C.J. StroudorGeno Smith?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Geno Smith in 73% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 27%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 5.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: C.J. Stroud faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs), Geno Smith faces the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 16.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.6 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 17.6 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 17.6 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | QB10 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.5 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 100% |
| Trade value | 22 | — |