Dak PrescottorDeshaun Watson?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson outscores Dak Prescott in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Dak Prescott comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Deshaun Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Deshaun Watson projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs); Dak Prescott faces the Houston Texans (11% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dak Prescott
Floor
9.4
Median
17.5
Ceiling
29.0
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
21%
Deshaun Watson
Floor
10.7
Median
17.9
Ceiling
27.8
Big game (25+):
16%
Dud (under 12):
16%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDak PrescottQB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETDeshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.418.7
PPR projection18.418.7
Standard projection18.418.7
Rank this weekQB10QB7
Matchupat HOUvs PIT
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game21.018.0
Last season per game18.5—
Snap share, last game100%99%
Trade value155