Bryce YoungorJustin Herbert?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Bryce Young
Bryce Young outscores Justin Herbert in 57% of simulations.
Justin Herbert still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Bryce Young is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bryce Young projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Justin Herbert has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (8% more than average to QBs); Bryce Young faces the New Orleans Saints (3% fewer than average to QBs). Bryce Young still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.8
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.3 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 15.3 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 15.3 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at NO | at BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.3 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 79% |
| Trade value | — | — |