C.J. StroudorDaniel Jones?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud outscores Daniel Jones in 57% of simulations.

Daniel Jones still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Daniel Jones faces the Washington Commanders (31% more than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

C.J. Stroud
Floor
9.1
Median
16.2
Ceiling
26.4
Big game (25+):
13%
Dud (under 12):
25%
Daniel Jones
Floor
8.3
Median
14.9
Ceiling
24.2
Big game (25+):
9%
Dud (under 12):
31%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatC.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETDaniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection17.115.8
PPR projection17.115.8
Standard projection17.115.8
Rank this weekQB14QB17
Matchupvs DALat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.19.4
Last season per game14.917.4
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value——