Deshaun WatsonorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Deshaun Watson in 57% of simulations.
Deshaun Watson still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Patrick Mahomes faces the Las Vegas Raiders (3% fewer than average to QBs), Deshaun Watson faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 27.8
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 11.4
- Median
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 31.6
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| Rank this week | QB7 | QB3 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.0 | 22.2 |
| Last season per game | — | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 99% | 100% |
| Trade value | 5 | 24 |