Deshaun WatsonorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Deshaun Watson in 74% of simulations.
Deshaun Watson still comes out ahead in the other 26%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 6.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Patrick Mahomes has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs); Deshaun Watson faces the Houston Texans (7% fewer than average to QBs). Deshaun Watson is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 48%
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.2 | 18.6 |
| PPR projection | 12.2 | 18.6 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 18.6 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB8 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at ATL |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.8 | 17.8 |
| Last season per game | — | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 94% |
| Trade value | — | 13 |