Jayden DanielsorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Jayden Daniels in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jayden Daniels comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Patrick Mahomes, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Patrick Mahomes projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Jayden Daniels has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (5% fewer than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Los Angeles Chargers (18% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 16.9
- Ceiling
- 27.3
- Big game (25+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 12):
- 21%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jayden DanielsQB, WAS, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.9 | 18.1 |
| PPR projection | 17.9 | 18.1 |
| Standard projection | 17.9 | 18.1 |
| Rank this week | QB5 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.6 | 20.9 |
| Last season per game | 16.3 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 10 | 24 |