Brock PurdyorC.J. Stroud?
Week 7 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores C.J. Stroud in 56% of simulations.
C.J. Stroud still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Atlanta Falcons (4% more than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 20.1
- Ceiling
- 33.3
- Big game (25+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 28.7
- Big game (25+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.2 | 19.1 |
| PPR projection | 21.2 | 19.1 |
| Standard projection | 21.2 | 19.1 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at ATL | vs NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.3 | 18.7 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 20 | — |