Brock PurdyorTrevor Lawrence?

Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy outscores Trevor Lawrence in 59% of simulations.

Trevor Lawrence still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 2.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Brock Purdy has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (29% more than average to QBs); Trevor Lawrence faces the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brock Purdy
Floor
12.0
Median
22.1
Ceiling
36.5
Big game (25+):
39%
Dud (under 12):
10%
Trevor Lawrence
Floor
10.3
Median
19.3
Ceiling
31.8
Big game (25+):
26%
Dud (under 12):
16%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

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StatBrock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ETTrevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection23.320.6
PPR projection23.320.6
Standard projection23.320.6
Rank this weekQB3QB5
Matchupat DALat TEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game21.418.4
Last season per game19.719.9
Snap share, last game92%100%
Trade value2919