Joe BurroworTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Trevor Lawrence in 56% of simulations.
Trevor Lawrence still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Joe Burrow is the better bet, not a sure thing. Joe Burrow projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (5% fewer than average to QBs). Joe Burrow still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.9
- Median
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (25+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 12):
- 10%
- Floor
- 10.5
- Median
- 19.4
- Ceiling
- 31.9
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 22.5 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 22.5 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 22.5 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.9 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 55 | 19 |