Brock PurdyorMatthew Stafford?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Matthew Stafford in 58% of simulations.
Matthew Stafford still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 3.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Brock Purdy faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs), Matthew Stafford faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.1
- Median
- 20.5
- Ceiling
- 34.3
- Big game (25+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.2
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.8 | 18.7 |
| PPR projection | 21.8 | 18.7 |
| Standard projection | 21.8 | 18.7 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB6 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 27.0 | 17.3 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 38 | 13 |