Drake MayeorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Patrick Mahomes in 60% of simulations.
Patrick Mahomes still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 3.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Drake Maye has the better matchup against the New York Jets (6% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Los Angeles Chargers (18% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 20.0
- Ceiling
- 32.9
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.1 | 18.1 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 18.1 |
| Standard projection | 21.1 | 18.1 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.5 | 20.9 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 22 | 24 |