C.J. StroudorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores C.J. Stroud in 55% of simulations.
C.J. Stroud still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Patrick Mahomes has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs); C.J. Stroud faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 16.4
- Ceiling
- 26.5
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.8
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.5 | 18.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.5 | 18.6 |
| Standard projection | 17.5 | 18.5 |
| Rank this week | QB9 | QB7 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.5 | 17.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 94% |
| Trade value | 22 | 13 |