Drake MayeorKirk Cousins?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Drake Maye

Drake Maye outscores Kirk Cousins in 58% of simulations.

Kirk Cousins still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Drake Maye has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs); Kirk Cousins faces the Kansas City Chiefs (19% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Drake Maye
Floor
8.2
Median
13.0
Ceiling
19.2
Big game (25+):
1%
Dud (under 12):
40%
Kirk Cousins
Floor
5.2
Median
11.6
Ceiling
21.8
Big game (25+):
5%
Dud (under 12):
53%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDrake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETKirk CousinsQB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection13.412.8
PPR projection13.412.8
Standard projection13.412.8
Rank this weekQB20QB24
Matchupat BUFvs KC
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.218.7
Last season per game20.710.4
Snap share, last game81%100%
Trade value——