C.J. StroudorJayden Daniels?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels outscores C.J. Stroud in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: C.J. Stroud comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Jayden Daniels, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jayden Daniels projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Jayden Daniels faces the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs). Jayden Daniels still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.1
- Median
- 16.2
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 9.5
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 25.9
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jayden DanielsQB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.1 | 17.2 |
| Standard projection | 17.1 | 17.2 |
| Rank this week | QB17 | QB16 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 16.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 16.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 55% |
| Trade value | — | — |