Brock PurdyorDeshaun Watson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Deshaun Watson in 56% of simulations.
Deshaun Watson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (9% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Seattle Seahawks (19% fewer than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Big game (25+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 25.8
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.5 | 17.5 |
| PPR projection | 19.5 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 19.5 | 17.5 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB7 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 25.1 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 38 | — |