Deshaun WatsonorMatthew Stafford?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson outscores Matthew Stafford in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Matthew Stafford comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Deshaun Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 18.7 half-PPR points in Week 4. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs); Matthew Stafford faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 27.8
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.2
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| Rank this week | QB7 | QB6 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.0 | 17.3 |
| Last season per game | — | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 99% | 100% |
| Trade value | 5 | 13 |