Dak PrescottorJacoby Brissett?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott outscores Jacoby Brissett in 56% of simulations.

Jacoby Brissett still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dak Prescott is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dak Prescott projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jacoby Brissett has the better matchup against the New York Giants (8% more than average to QBs); Dak Prescott faces the Houston Texans (11% fewer than average to QBs). Dak Prescott still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dak Prescott
Floor
9.4
Median
17.5
Ceiling
29.0
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
21%
Jacoby Brissett
Floor
8.2
Median
16.2
Ceiling
27.5
Big game (25+):
15%
Dud (under 12):
28%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDak PrescottQB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJacoby BrissettQB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.417.3
PPR projection18.417.3
Standard projection18.417.3
Rank this weekQB10QB13
Matchupat HOUat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game21.016.2
Last season per game18.516.2
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value15—