Brock PurdyorBryce Young?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Bryce Young in 56% of simulations.
Bryce Young still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bryce Young has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.1
- Median
- 20.5
- Ceiling
- 34.3
- Big game (25+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.8 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 21.8 | 20.2 |
| Standard projection | 21.8 | 20.2 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 27.0 | 23.0 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 13.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 38 | — |