Caleb WilliamsorTyler Shough?

Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams outscores Tyler Shough in 65% of simulations.

Tyler Shough still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so Caleb Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Caleb Williams projects 3.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Caleb Williams has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% fewer than average to QBs); Tyler Shough faces the Cleveland Browns (18% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Caleb Williams
Floor
8.9
Median
17.1
Ceiling
29.0
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
24%
Tyler Shough
Floor
6.3
Median
13.1
Ceiling
23.7
Big game (25+):
8%
Dud (under 12):
43%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

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StatCaleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ETTyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.114.2
PPR projection18.114.2
Standard projection18.114.2
Rank this weekQB8QB16
Matchupvs TBvs CLE
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game19.518.0
Last season per game18.714.4
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value9—