Caleb WilliamsorDrake Maye?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Caleb Williams in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Williams comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Drake Maye, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Drake Maye projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Drake Maye faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to QBs), Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 33%
- Floor
- 9.9
- Median
- 16.4
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 17.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 17.1 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 17.0 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB9 |
| Matchup | at GB | vs LV |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 11.9 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 20.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | — |