Bo NixorCaleb Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Bo Nix in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bo Nix comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs), Bo Nix faces the Los Angeles Chargers (15% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.1 | 16.5 |
| PPR projection | 15.1 | 16.6 |
| Standard projection | 15.1 | 16.5 |
| Rank this week | QB17 | QB13 |
| Matchup | at LAC | at GB |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 14.3 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 18.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 98% | 86% |
| Trade value | — | 17 |