Caleb WilliamsorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Trevor Lawrence in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Caleb Williams faces the New York Jets (13% more than average to QBs), Trevor Lawrence faces the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 19.6
- Ceiling
- 33.8
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 31.3
- Big game (25+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.9 | 19.9 |
| PPR projection | 20.9 | 19.9 |
| Standard projection | 20.8 | 19.9 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 95% |
| Trade value | 15 | 12 |