Aaron RodgersorCaleb Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores Caleb Williams in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Williams comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Aaron Rodgers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.0
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.5 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.6 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 16.5 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB13 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at GB |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 18.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 86% |
| Trade value | — | 17 |