Brock PurdyorCaleb Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Caleb Williams in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Caleb Williams comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Brock Purdy, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Brock Purdy projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Caleb Williams has the better matchup against the New York Jets (13% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 19.9
- Ceiling
- 33.2
- Big game (25+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 19.6
- Ceiling
- 33.8
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.1 | 20.9 |
| PPR projection | 21.1 | 20.9 |
| Standard projection | 21.1 | 20.8 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB3 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 27.0 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 18.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 86% |
| Trade value | 38 | 15 |