Dak PrescottorJosh Allen?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Josh Allen
Josh Allen outscores Dak Prescott in 58% of simulations.
Dak Prescott still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 3.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Dak Prescott has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% more than average to QBs); Josh Allen faces the Los Angeles Rams (7% fewer than average to QBs). Josh Allen still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.5
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 31.7
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
- Floor
- 11.6
- Median
- 21.7
- Ceiling
- 36.6
- Big game (25+):
- 37%
- Dud (under 12):
- 11%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Dak PrescottQB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Josh AllenQB, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 23.4 |
| PPR projection | 20.2 | 23.4 |
| Standard projection | 20.2 | 23.3 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB1 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.3 | 28.0 |
| Last season per game | 18.5 | 22.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 16 | 55 |