Dak PrescottorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Dak Prescott in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dak Prescott comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Patrick Mahomes, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes has the better matchup against the New York Jets (16% more than average to QBs); Dak Prescott faces the Indianapolis Colts (6% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 29.8
- Big game (25+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 31.5
- Big game (25+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dak PrescottQB, DAL, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.1 | 20.2 |
| PPR projection | 19.1 | 20.2 |
| Standard projection | 19.1 | 20.2 |
| Rank this week | QB7 | QB4 |
| Matchup | at IND | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.5 | 17.9 |
| Last season per game | 18.5 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 8 | 9 |