Caleb WilliamsorJared Goff?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jared Goff
Jared Goff outscores Caleb Williams in 56% of simulations.
Caleb Williams still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jared Goff is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jared Goff projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Jared Goff has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (16% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 17.1
- Ceiling
- 29.0
- Big game (25+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 10.6
- Median
- 19.2
- Ceiling
- 30.9
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 15%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.1 | 20.3 |
| PPR projection | 18.1 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 18.1 | 20.3 |
| Rank this week | QB8 | QB3 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.5 | 20.3 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 17.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 9 | 10 |