Caleb WilliamsorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Patrick Mahomes in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Patrick Mahomes comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Caleb Williams has the better matchup against the New York Jets (13% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Las Vegas Raiders (3% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 19.6
- Ceiling
- 33.8
- Big game (25+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
- Floor
- 11.3
- Median
- 19.7
- Ceiling
- 31.3
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.9 | 20.5 |
| PPR projection | 20.9 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 20.8 | 20.5 |
| Rank this week | QB3 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 22.2 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 15 | 26 |