Caleb WilliamsorMatthew Stafford?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford outscores Caleb Williams in 57% of simulations.
Caleb Williams still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Matthew Stafford is the better bet, not a sure thing. Matthew Stafford projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Matthew Stafford has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (21% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 17.1
- Ceiling
- 29.0
- Big game (25+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Big game (25+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.1 | 20.0 |
| PPR projection | 18.1 | 20.0 |
| Standard projection | 18.1 | 20.0 |
| Rank this week | QB8 | QB5 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.5 | 16.5 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 20.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 9 | 3 |