Dak PrescottorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Dak Prescott in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dak Prescott comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Trevor Lawrence, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs); Dak Prescott faces the Houston Texans (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.3
- Median
- 17.2
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
- Floor
- 9.6
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 31.3
- Big game (25+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dak PrescottQB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.1 | 19.9 |
| PPR projection | 18.1 | 19.9 |
| Standard projection | 18.1 | 19.9 |
| Rank this week | QB9 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.0 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 18.5 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | 17 | 13 |