Deshaun WatsonorJared Goff?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson outscores Jared Goff in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jared Goff comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Deshaun Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Deshaun Watson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the Carolina Panthers (8% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Deshaun Watson
Floor
10.7
Median
17.9
Ceiling
27.8
Big game (25+):
16%
Dud (under 12):
16%
Jared Goff
Floor
9.7
Median
17.5
Ceiling
28.4
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
20%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDeshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETJared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.718.6
PPR projection18.718.6
Standard projection18.718.6
Rank this weekQB7QB8
Matchupvs PITat CAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game18.021.9
Last season per game—17.5
Snap share, last game99%100%
Trade value514