Deshaun WatsonorJared Goff?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson outscores Jared Goff in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jared Goff comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Deshaun Watson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Deshaun Watson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (3% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the Carolina Panthers (8% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 27.8
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (25+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.7 | 18.6 |
| PPR projection | 18.7 | 18.6 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 18.6 |
| Rank this week | QB7 | QB8 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.0 | 21.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 17.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 99% | 100% |
| Trade value | 5 | 14 |