Geno SmithorTyler Shough?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough outscores Geno Smith in 55% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Tyler Shough is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tyler Shough projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Tyler Shough faces the Cleveland Browns (19% fewer than average to QBs), Geno Smith faces the Kansas City Chiefs (14% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 50%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 13.1
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| Standard projection | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB18 |
| Matchup | at KC | vs CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.4 | 18.0 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |