Baker MayfieldorC.J. Stroud?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Baker Mayfield in 57% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: C.J. Stroud faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (8% fewer than average to QBs), Baker Mayfield faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (1% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 8.6
- Median
- 14.8
- Ceiling
- 23.8
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB16 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 17.8 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |